Freight costs in 2026 are higher and less predictable than they've been in years — fuel surcharges are accelerating, airfreight capacity is squeezed, and schedule reliability is below par. Here's what's driving it and what Australian importers should do about it.
If your freight costs feel like they've taken on a life of their own lately, you're not imagining it.
In the past few weeks, virtually every major shipping line operating on Australian trade lanes has introduced Emergency Bunker Surcharges. Australia Post cranked its fuel surcharge from 4.8% to 12% — effective 23 April 2026. And logistics operators across Sydney and Melbourne are warning that domestic cartage costs are increasing, in some cases on a weekly basis.
Meanwhile, if you're looking at your freight invoice and wondering why the base rate looks stable but your total landed cost keeps climbing — that's the story of 2026 freight in a nutshell. Stable base rates are masking a far more complex and expensive reality underneath.
This isn't a doomsday piece. Freight disruptions are a recurring feature of global trade, and Australian importers who understand what's driving costs are in a much stronger position than those who don't. So let's get stuck in.
Three main forces are driving the current freight cost environment for Australian importers:
The most immediate driver of rising freight costs in April 2026 is fuel. Middle East geopolitical tensions are disrupting oil supply chains and shipping routes, pushing up fuel costs across the entire logistics chain.
Every major carrier serving Australian trade lanes — Maersk, CMA CGM/ANL, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, ONE, PIL, OOCL, and SeaLead — has now implemented Emergency Bunker Surcharges on top of contracted base rates. MSC is applying a USD $300/TEU rate restoration from North and Southeast Asia to Australia and New Zealand, effective 1 April. ANL (CMA CGM Group) is adding USD $300/20-foot container and USD $600/40-foot container from Asia, the Indian Subcontinent, and the Middle East.
These surcharges are moving faster than contracted base freight rates — and in some cases are approaching or exceeding the base rate itself. The result: even if your contract freight rate hasn't changed, your total invoice has.
The fuel levy applied by carriers across one major Australian network has effectively doubled in under a month, translating to an 11% increase in total shipping costs almost overnight.
For importers with thin margins — or for eCommerce businesses where landed cost pricing determines whether a product is profitable — this is not a small number.
If you're using airfreight for restocking or time-sensitive orders, the situation is even tighter. Airspace restrictions related to Middle East conflict zones are forcing rerouting of aircraft, which extends flight times, reduces available capacity, and increases fuel burn — all of which feeds into higher airfreight rates.
Capacity constraints on preferred routes to Australia are particularly acute. If you rely on airfreight for urgent restocking, expect both higher rates and reduced availability through Q2 2026.
Your container may be on the water — but it may not arrive when you expect it.
Transhipment delays are building at Singapore and other key Asian hubs, creating knock-on effects across Australian port schedules. Schedule reliability across major Asia–Australia trade lanes remains below historical norms, and the current environment — with vessels being redeployed across global trades rather than added — is not improving this in the short term.
The practical impact for importers: build more buffer time into your supply chain planning. Seabridge Global Logistics, one of Australia's leading freight advisory firms, recommends booking preferred sailings 2–4 weeks earlier than you normally would.
Here's the critical concept every Australian importer needs to understand right now: total landed cost — not base freight rate — is your number.
Total landed cost is everything it takes to get product from your supplier's factory floor to your Australian warehouse or site. It includes:
Every one of these line items has increased or become less predictable in Q1–Q2 2026. The worst mistake an importer can make right now is modelling their cost on the last invoice and assuming the same numbers will hold.
For a realistic, up-to-date landed cost estimate on your specific product, check in with the Epic Sourcing team — we model this for clients regularly and can give you a current-conditions picture.
Not all importers are equally exposed to the current freight environment. Here's a quick read by product category:
Furniture & Home Decor
Heavy, bulky, and predominantly FCL (full container load) — furniture importers are feeling the fuel surcharge impact acutely, as the surcharge is per-container. If you're mid-order on a furniture programme, factor an additional $400–$900 per 40-foot container into your Q2 cost model. Vietnam is increasingly preferred for custom furniture and rattan pieces, and the freight dynamic from Vietnam is broadly similar.
Clothing & Apparel
Lighter goods that often ship LCL or airfreight. Airfreight importers are particularly exposed right now given current capacity constraints and rerouting. If you have a seasonal collection dependent on airfreight timelines, now is the time to stress-test your lead times.
Building Materials
Tiles, stone, and steel windows are heavy, often ship FCL, and are currently in an active enquiry surge. The freight cost impact per square metre or per unit can be material. Factor fuel surcharges into every landed cost model before quoting your client.
eCommerce / Small Parcel
The Australia Post fuel surcharge increase from 4.8% to 12% (effective 23 April 2026) hits eCommerce operators hardest on the domestic delivery side. For importers who also manage domestic fulfilment, this is a double impact — higher inbound freight AND higher last-mile costs.
Electronics & Wearables
Often airfreight-dependent for responsiveness. The current airfreight squeeze is directly relevant. Consider sea freight for replenishment stock if lead times allow.
Understanding what's happening is step one. Step two is acting on it. Here are the practical steps we recommend for Australian importers navigating the current freight environment:
Pull out your most recent landed cost calculation for every active product line. Are you using freight rates from your last shipment — 3, 6, or 12 months ago? If so, you're underestimating your current cost. Get updated quotes from your freight forwarder that include current surcharges — and rebuild your models before you place your next order or requote a client.
In a stable freight environment, importers can model landed cost fairly precisely. In the current environment, you can't. Build a buffer — 10–15% above your current freight quote — into any pricing you're committing to for Q2–Q3 2026 delivery. It's better to have margin to give back than to find yourself selling at a loss.
Preferred sailings are filling faster as shippers respond to schedule unreliability by booking earlier. If you're accustomed to booking 3–4 weeks before your required shipping date, move that to 5–7 weeks. This is the single easiest operational change you can make to protect your supply chain right now.
Not all freight forwarders are equal in navigating a complex surcharge environment. Your forwarder should be proactively notifying you of surcharge changes, providing updated total-cost estimates, and offering routing alternatives where possible. If you're not getting this service, it may be time to have a conversation — or look for a partner who takes a more proactive approach.
If your business allows it, consolidating smaller orders into fewer, larger shipments can reduce the per-unit impact of fixed surcharges. LCL (less-than-container-load) shipments carry additional consolidation fees that compound the surcharge impact — moving to FCL (if your volumes justify it) can reduce cost per unit meaningfully.
If you're a product-based business that sells on landed cost pricing — and your freight costs have materially increased — your customers need to know. Transparent, proactive communication about market-driven cost changes is far better for relationships than a surprise invoice. It also positions you as a knowledgeable partner rather than someone who just passes on bills without context.
Based on current market intelligence, Q2 2026 is expected to see continued fuel volatility, elevated surcharges, and below-average schedule reliability across Asia–Australia trade lanes. The Middle East disruption driving the current airspace and oil market pressure is not resolved, and carrier behaviour — redeploying capacity rather than adding it — suggests the structural freight environment will remain tight.
For the remainder of 2026, Australian importers should plan under the assumption that freight costs will remain elevated and unpredictable, rather than reverting to the more stable conditions of 2024–early 2025.
This is not unusual in global trade. Freight markets are cyclical, and the businesses that navigate disruptions best are those with flexible supply chains, accurate cost models, and strong supplier and logistics relationships.
One of the less-discussed parts of what a sourcing agency does is landed cost management. At Epic Sourcing, we don't just find your factory and wave goodbye — we help you model the full cost picture.
That means working with trusted freight partners to get current-conditions freight quotes, factoring in biosecurity requirements and DAFF compliance costs, and flagging when the freight environment changes in ways that affect your order timing or pricing.
If you're currently placing orders from China or Vietnam and haven't updated your landed cost models recently, now is the time. Our OutSource service includes full landed cost visibility as a standard part of how we work. Take a look at our pricing page to understand what's involved — or read more about importing from China to Australia for the full picture.
If you're preparing orders now and want to understand what freight will cost in the current environment, give us a bell at gday@epicsourcing.com.au. We'll give you a straight answer.
Why is my freight invoice higher than my contracted rate?
Surcharges — particularly fuel/bunker surcharges — are applied on top of contracted base rates. In the current environment, these surcharges are moving quickly and can add 10–25% or more to your base freight cost.
Will freight costs come down in 2026?
Current forecasts suggest elevated surcharges and below-average schedule reliability will persist through Q2 2026. Markets can change quickly, but planning for a higher-cost environment is the prudent approach.
Is sea freight or airfreight better right now?
For most product categories, sea freight remains significantly cheaper per unit. Airfreight is under particular pressure right now due to airspace restrictions and capacity constraints — use it only where lead time genuinely requires it.
How do I calculate total landed cost?
Total landed cost = factory price + inland China freight + origin fees + ocean/air freight (including all surcharges) + insurance + destination port charges + customs duty + GST + DAFF fees + domestic cartage. A sourcing partner or freight forwarder can help you model this accurately for your specific product.
Should I delay my orders because of freight costs?
Not necessarily. Delayed orders create their own costs — stockouts, missed sales windows, or production delays. The better approach is to model freight accurately, build appropriate buffers into your pricing, and proceed with visibility rather than waiting for freight costs to normalise.
Freight costs in 2026 are higher, less predictable, and more complex than they've been in a couple of years. The businesses that come out ahead are the ones that model total landed cost accurately, plan supply chains with more buffer, and work with experienced sourcing and logistics partners who tell them the truth about what it costs to import.
If you want to understand exactly what it costs to land your products in Australia right now — speak to the Epic Sourcing team. We're across the current freight market and will give you a straight picture.
Related reading: FOB Shipping Explained — What Australian Importers Need to Know
New to importing? Our guide to Importing from China to Australia covers the full end-to-end process.
Sourcing furniture, home decor or building materials? Read how we helped Aussie businesses source smarter from Vietnam and China.
